Project time estimation methodology that accounts for uncertainty by using three time estimates: optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic. Originally developed by the US Navy for complex project planning and critical path analysis.
PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) is a statistical time estimation method originally developed by the US Navy to plan and execute complex projects. It provides a structured approach to estimating task durations by accounting for uncertainty and variability in project timelines.
PERT estimation uses three different time estimates for each task:
The expected time (E) is calculated using a weighted average:
E = (O + 4M + P) / 6
This formula gives more weight to the most likely estimate while accounting for both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.
PERT enables identification of the critical path - the sequence of tasks that determines the minimum project duration. Any delay in critical path tasks directly impacts the overall project timeline.
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